KEY CONCEPTS

  • Warming oceans are fueling stronger tropical cyclones—the costliest and lethal climate disasters within the U.S.

  • Of the ten costliest climate disasters in U.S. historical past, eight were hurricanes

  • About 80% of major hurricanes bear speedy intensification. In the Atlantic, 170 landfalling tropical cyclones have skilled speedy intensification since 1980. 

  • Of the 56 tropical cyclones which have induced no less than $1 billion in harm within the U.S. from 1980-2021, 73% underwent speedy intensification.

Landfalling tropical cyclones

The 2022 hurricane season has been quiet up to now, however NOAA nonetheless predicts above-average activity (as of August 4). And as we’ve seen lately, it solely takes one main hurricane to trigger widespread devastation and harm. To mark the height of Atlantic hurricane season (September 10), we’re trying on the excessive prices of hurricane speedy intensification. 

Tropical cyclones, which embrace hurricanes and tropical storms, are essentially the most lethal and dear climate disasters within the U.S. by far. Tropical cyclones with damages exceeding $1 billion account for a complete of $1.19 trillion in harm since 1980—greater than half of the price of all billion-dollar disasters since then.

Billion-dollar Tropical Cyclones

Of the ten costliest climate disasters within the U.S., eight were hurricanes. The prime three (Hurricanes Maria, Harvey, and Katrina) resulted in a complete of 4,903 lives misplaced and over $442 billion in damages. 

Total billion-dollar tropical cyclone costs are highest in Louisiana, Texas, and Florida—however prolong to 29 states all through the South, Southeast, Northeast, and Ohio Valley, in addition to to Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. 

Tropical cyclones can generate a number of devastating hazards together with storm surge, heavy rainfall, flooding, winds of 100 mph or extra, and tornadoes. About half of the fatalities within the U.S. attributed to Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1963-2012 had been attributable to storm surge. Another 27% of fatalities had been attributable to heavy rainfall, which will increase the chance of flooding far from the coast. The risks multiply when hurricane-induced energy outages overlap with different excessive occasions corresponding to heatwaves.

Rapidly intensifying hurricanes

About 80% of major hurricanes (class 3-5) bear rapid intensification—outlined as a rise within the most sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of no less than 30 kt (about 35 mph) in a 24 hour interval.  It will be difficult to forecast rapid intensification, and this contributes to the excessive human and monetary toll of such storms.

CM: Rapid Intensification
Rapid Intensification
CM: Extreme Rapid Intensification
Extreme Rapid Intensification

From 1980-2021, 170 landfalling Atlantic tropical cyclones skilled speedy intensification above the 30 kt threshold. Of these storms, 22% (38) skilled excessive speedy intensification (a rise in most sustained winds of no less than 50 kt (about 58 mph) in a 24 hour interval).

Of the 56 tropical cyclones which have induced no less than $1 billion in harm within the U.S. from 1980-2021, 73% underwent speedy intensification.

CM: Stronger Storms, Higher Costs
Stronger Storms, Higher Costs

The 5 costliest hurricanes had most speedy intensification charges between 40-70 kt in 24 hours:

CM: Hurricane Impacts Table

Observations present an increase in tropical cyclone intensification rates within the Atlantic basin from 1982-2009. And on a worldwide scale, excessive speedy intensification occasions (50+ kt in 24 hrs) have increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, probably primarily attributable to warming sea floor temperatures. 

Tropical cyclones and local weather change

The results of local weather change on hurricanes are complicated, however analysis exhibits rising temperatures are inflicting hurricanes to become more intense. Higher tropical cyclone rainfall rates are anticipated with additional warming. And rising sea levels additional improve the chance of flooding from tropical cyclones, typically rising hurricane damages by billions of dollars

Ocean warming attributable to human-caused local weather change is fueling an elevated proportion of intense tropical cyclones and contributing to an elevated fraction of storms that bear rapid intensification

Since 1979, human-caused warming has elevated the worldwide probability of a tropical cyclone creating into a significant hurricane (class 3 or increased) by about 8% per decade. The newest IPCC experiences conclude that the proportion of very intense (class 4 and 5) tropical cyclones is projected to increase globally with continued warming. 

Rising losses from tropical cyclones

The dangers from tropical cyclones mirror a mix of three elements:

  • bodily hazards that end result from tropical cyclones (e.g., storm surge), 

  • publicity of individuals and property to those hazards the place and after they happen, and 

  • the vulnerability of populations within the storm monitor (e.g., capacity to respond and recover).

While the frequency of landfalling hurricanes within the continental U.S. hasn’t modified from 1900-2017, the ensuing financial losses have increased significantly over the identical interval. Population development and regional wealth alongside the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts (elevated publicity) are mirrored within the elevated harm. 

POTENTIAL LOCAL STORY ANGLES

Resources on local weather change and tropical cyclones:
NOAA repeatedly updates a complete abstract of the science on Global Warming and Hurricanes, and gives a hurricane season Media Resource Guide. Climate Central’s Extreme Weather Toolkit: Tropical Cyclones offers reporting sources and multimedia graphics in English and Spanish.

Current storm forecasts:
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center screens present circumstances and offers 2-day and 5-day outlooks for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific.

Official steerage on hurricane security and preparedness:
NOAA’s National Hurricane Preparedness web site contains security tips, sources to find out native hurricane threat and evacuation zones, and steerage on insurance coverage checkups. The Ready.Gov hurricanes web site offers steerage in 13 languages. The CDC’s Preparing for Hurricanes During the COVID-19 Pandemic web site offers further steerage. 

Mapping native hurricane threat:
The FEMA Flood Map Service Center offers searchable flood maps by tackle. NOAA’s National Storm Surge Risk Maps can be utilized to evaluate threat in hurricane-prone coastal areas. FEMA’s National Risk Index maps present hurricane threat ranges for counties and census tracts within the contiguous U.S. 

LOCAL EXPERTS

The SciLine service, 500 Women Scientists or the press workplaces of native universities could possibly join you with native scientists who’ve experience on hurricanes and local weather change. The American Association of State Climatologists is knowledgeable scientific group composed of all state climatologists

NATIONAL EXPERTS 

Susan Cutter, PhD
Carolina Distinguished Professor; Director of the Hazards Vulnerability & Resilience Institute
University of South Carolina
Contact: scutter@sc.edu
Related experience: hazards threat and disaster; Vulnerability science

Daniel Gilford, PhD
Climate Scientist
Climate Central
Contact: dgilford@climatecentral.org 
Related experience: tropical cyclone depth and coastal impacts

Gabriel Vecchi, PhD 
Professor of Geosciences
Director, High Meadows Environmental Institute
Princeton University
Contact: gvecchi@princeton.edu
Related experience: tropical meteorology and local weather change 
*Available for interviews in Spanish and English

Kimberly Wood, PhD
Associate Professor
Mississippi State University
Contact: kimberly.wooden@msstate.edu
Related experience: tropical cyclones and speedy depth change

METHODOLOGY

Special because of Dr. Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State Tropical Meteorological Project for help. A speedy intensification interval (RI) is outlined by the National Hurricane Center as a rise within the most sustained wind velocity of no less than 30 knots (approx 35 mph) in 24 hours. Hurricane knowledge had been collected from the HURDAT2 dataset and depth of storms was analyzed at synoptic occasions (00, 06, 12, 18 GMT). Only storms that had reached tropical storm standing had been thought of for the speedy intensification evaluation and subtropical programs had been excluded. Because of limitations in detection (earlier than satellite tv for pc and plane reconnaissance), HURDAT2 knowledge earlier than 1980 had been excluded on this evaluation.

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